
A poor performance in Europe next season could still be detrimental for the 2018/19 season if Italian sides are successful, but the gap over Italy has been stretched in recent months. In December, after Manchester United’s exit from the Champions league at the group stage, England’s overall lead over Italy was just 3.054 but that lead has now been stretched to 4.845 following Manchester City and Liverpool's progress in Europe, as well as Juventus and Lazio's exit at the round of 16 stage of the champions league and Europa league respectively.
The coefficient is calculated by working out an average score for the country, which is gained by dividing the number of 'points' obtained by the total number of clubs representing a country. England have eight clubs this season; Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool, Southampton and West Ham. That resulting number is then added to the results of the previous four seasons to calculate the coefficient, making a five-year run. the total of those five years is the decisive number, with England’s currently standing at 75.284 and Italy’s at 70.439
For England to lose fourth spot in the 2018/19 season, Italian teams would have to out-perform the English by 0.952 points, which has happened only once since 2002/03.
This Is How To Gain Points
- Each team gets two points for a win in either European competition and one point for a draw, though points are halved for matches in the qualifying and play-off rounds.
- Clubs that reach the last 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals or final of the Champions League, or the quarter-finals, semi-finals or final of the Europa league, are awarded an extra point for each round.
- In addition, four points are awarded for participation in the group stage of the Champions League and four points for qualifying for the last 16.
- The total amount of points a country gains is then divided by the number of clubs representing that country.
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